Andrey Sizov
20.03.2025
On Wednesday, U.S. grain prices declined, while European prices rose. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.63/bu ($207/mt; -0.3% compared to Tuesday). The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas fell to $5.95/bu ($218/mt; -1.9%). The May U.S. corn contract settled at $4.62/bu ($182/mt; +0.7%). The May Euronext wheat contract rose to €227.25/mt ($248/mt; +2.2%).
Andrey Sizov, Head of SovEcon: “The market was caught off guard by Turkey’s decision to remove import restrictions on wheat. In response, the May Matif contract surged 2.3% yesterday—the biggest daily gain since November—as traders bet on a demand rebound. However, the scale of additional demand remains uncertain given Turkey’s relatively high domestic supply. Meanwhile, funds’ net short positions in Matif wheat have hit a record-high of 219 thousand contracts. If the Turkish news triggers a wave of short-covering, things could get spicy—potentially pulling U.S. wheat prices higher as well.”
Turkey has allowed duty-free wheat imports, according to the Flour Industrialists’ Federation, as reported by Reuters and several local sources.
Turkey will introduce a quota for 1 mmt of corn imports, the Official Gazette of the Republic of Turkey reported. In October 2024, the import duty on 1 mmt of corn was reduced from 130% to 5%.
Last week, Iran purchased about 500,000 mt of Russian wheat, Reuters reported, citing traders.
Last week, bids for Russian 12.5% wheat in deep-sea ports dropped to 17,300–17,800 rub/mt from 17,500–18,000 rub/mt the previous week, as per SovEcon estimate. This marks the first price decline since mid-February. The price drop was driven by exporters lowering purchase prices.
