Andrey Sizov
11.03.2026
Grain futures fell on Tuesday. May SRW wheat settled at $5.91/bu ($217/mt; -2.0% vs. Monday). May HRW wheat fell to $6.09/bu ($224/mt; -1.8%). May Euronext wheat closed at €204.00/mt ($237/mt; -2.7%). May U.S. corn slipped to $4.52/bu ($178/mt; -0.3%).
USDA released its March WASDE update. The forecast for global corn ending stocks was raised to 292.8 mmt (+3.8 mmt vs. last month; +3.6 mmt vs. the trade estimate), while global wheat ending stocks were cut to 277.0 mmt (-0.6 mmt vs. February and the trade estimate). U.S. corn and wheat ending stocks forecasts were unchanged month to month at 54.0 mmt (-0.3 mmt vs. the trade estimate) and 25.3 mmt (+0.1 mmt), respectively.
USDA raised its estimate of Ukraine’s wheat production by 1.0 mmt to 24.0 mmt and corn production by 1.7 mmt to 30.7 mmt. Estimates for Russia’s wheat and corn production were unchanged at 89.5 mmt and 14.5 mmt.
USDA cut its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 43.5 mmt and for Ukrainian wheat exports by 0.5 mmt to 13.5 mmt. Forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian corn exports were unchanged at 3.0 mmt and 22.0 mmt.
Russian companies continued exporting grain to Iran via the Caspian Sea after hostilities began, Reuters reported, citing sources. One source said shipments were paused for several days last week.
From July 1 to March 8, the EU shipped 16.5 mmt of soft wheat (+9% YoY) versus 15.1 mmt over the same period last season, European Commission data showed. Export figures for Poland, Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete.
From March 1-6, Ukraine exported 0.5 mmt of grain, unchanged from the level as of March 5, 2025, Economy Ministry data showed. Total shipments since the start of the season reached 22.8 mmt versus 29.6 mmt a year earlier.
