SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – June 4, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

Wheat futures declined on Tuesday. The July SRW wheat contract closed at $5.36/bu ($197/mt; -0.6% from Monday). July Kansas HRW fell to $5.37/bu ($197/mt; -0.6%). September Euronext wheat settled at €202.00/mt ($230/mt; -0.2%). July U.S. corn remained at $4.38/bu ($173/mt; unchanged).

Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev instructed officials to consider declaring a state of emergency due to dry weather in the northern parts of the region.

EU soft wheat exports totaled 19.1 mmt between July 1 and June 1, down from 28.8 mmt the year before, according to European Commission data. Analysts warned that grain export figures for France and Italy in 2024 remain incomplete.

Ukraine’s grain crop could total 51.0 mmt under the most pessimistic scenario, down from 56.7 mmt last year, said Agriculture Minister Vitaliy Koval. Wheat output is expected to range between 20 and 22 mmt, he added.

Brazil’s AgRural raised its corn production estimate to 128.5 mmt from 124.8 mmt in April, citing strong yields from the safrinha crop.

Australia’s ABARES estimates the country’s wheat crop at 30.6 mmt, 10% below last year’s level but still above the long-term average.

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