SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – July 8, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

Grain futures declined in the U.S. on Monday. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.48/bu ($201/mt; -1.5% from Friday). The September HRW wheat contract fell to $5.27/bu ($194/mt; -1.6%). The September Euronext wheat contract closed at €196.00/mt ($229/mt; +0.1%). The September U.S. corn contract plunged to $4.03/bu ($159/mt; -4.0%).

The FAO Food Price Index averaged 128.0 points in June 2025, up 0.7 points from May. The Cereal Price Index fell to 107.4 points, down 1.6 points from the previous month.

FAO raised its July forecast for global cereal production by nearly 14 mmt from the previous month to 2.925 bln mt, citing improved crop outlooks for wheat, corn, and rice. The largest increases are expected in India, Pakistan, and Brazil.

The USDA reported export sales of 135 tmt of corn to Mexico.

Winter wheat harvest in the U.S. was 53% complete as of July 7, up from 37% a week earlier and near the five-year average of 54%, according to USDA data. The market had expected 49% completion.

The share of U.S. corn rated in good or excellent condition rose to 74% from 73% the previous week and market expectations of 73%. Spring wheat ratings declined to 50% from 53% a week earlier and 53% expected by the market.

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