SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – July 7, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

U.S. markets were closed on Friday in observance of Independence Day. The September Euronext wheat contract fell to €195.75/mt ($231/mt; -0.8%).

Russia’s wheat export tax will be set to zero as of July 9 for the first time since its introduction in 2021, the Ministry of Agriculture said. The tax had been set at 56.3 rub/mt the previous week.

The annual quota for Ukrainian wheat exports to the EU is set at 1.3 mmt — higher than the 1.0 mmt in 2021 but significantly below the 4.5 mmt exported in 2024/25 under the duty-free regime in place since 2022.

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture maintains its grain production forecast at 135 mmt, including 90 mmt of wheat, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said.

Harvesting of early grains has begun in southern Russia, SovEcon said in its weekly report. Initial yields in the country’s key agricultural regions are lower than last year due to a moisture deficit.

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