SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – July 14, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

Grain futures declined on Friday. September SRW wheat closed at $5.45/bu ($200/mt; -1.7% compared to Thursday). September HRW wheat fell to $5.24/bu ($193/mt; -1.9%). September Euronext wheat settled at €201.00/mt ($235/mt; -0.1%). September U.S. corn dropped to $3.96/bu ($156/mt; -0.8%).

USDA released its July WASDE update. Ending stocks of U.S. wheat are estimated at 24.2 mmt (-0.2 mmt compared to last month and the market estimate), and corn at 42.2 mmt (-2.3 mmt from last month and -1.5 mmt from the market estimate).

The global wheat ending stocks forecast was cut by 1.2 mmt to 261.5 mmt due to downward revisions for Canada and Ukraine. Global corn stocks are estimated at 272.1 mmt (-3.2 mmt from last month; -5.4 mmt from the market estimate), mainly due to a lower estimate for beginning stocks in China.

The wheat production forecast for Russia was raised by 0.5 mmt to 83.5 mmt. The wheat export estimate was increased by 1.0 mmt to 46.0 mmt.

Turkey will temporarily waive the import tax on 500 tmt of corn until the end of July, according to the Official Gazette of the Republic of Turkey on Monday.

Algeria’s OAIC will hold a tender on July 15 to purchase a nominal 50 tmt of wheat.

Russia’s wheat export tax will remain at zero for the second consecutive week starting July 16, according to the Agriculture Ministry.

More Articles for You

August Wheat Exports Could Be Lowest Since 2016/17

Black Sea disruptions and weak demand weigh on shipments

Russia wheat exports in July lowest since 2017/18

Russian wheat exports totaled an estimated 1.6 mmt in July, the lowest for the month since 2017/18, according to a …

Russia grain export forecast cut as Azov navigation remains closed

SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 44.6 mmt from 46.5 mmt as navigation in the …

Russia wheat crop forecast cut to 88.3 mmt

SovEcon has cut its 2026 Russian wheat crop forecast to 88.3 mmt from 88.9 mmt, according to the company’s latest …

New-season Russian wheat export forecast raised on larger stocks

Larger carry-in stocks are expected to support Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 despite a smaller crop and muted early-season demand.

Russia starts new harvest with wheat yields up 29% y/y

Early harvest data from southern Russia show wheat and barley yields above last year after favorable weather.