SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – January 29, 2026

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Wednesday, wheat futures rose. March SRW wheat settled at $5.36/bu ($197/mt; +2.4% vs. Tuesday). March HRW wheat rose to $5.42/bu ($199/mt; +1.8%). March Euronext wheat settled at €190.00/mt ($227/mt; +1.5%). March U.S. corn rose to $4.30/bu ($169/mt; +0.8%).

Rosstat revised its preliminary 2025 grain crop figures. Wheat crop was put at 90.9 mmt (vs. 91.4 mmt in December). Barley crop was estimated at 19.6 mmt (19.7 mmt), while the corn crop was unchanged at 12.7 mmt. Total grain output was estimated at 138.8 mmt (vs. 139.4 mmt in December).

Russia shipped 50 mmt of grain in 2025, including 41 mmt of wheat, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said. She pegged Russia’s grain export potential in 2026 at 55 mmt.

President Donald Trump endorsed legislation to allow year-round sales of higher-ethanol E15 gasoline, pitching it to an Iowa crowd that included farmers. The plan would lift summer limits on sales of E15 and tie the change to curbs on refinery exemptions from biofuel quotas.

Tunisia’s ODC bought 100 tmt of soft wheat at $256/mt C&F and 100 tmt of durum wheat at $324/mt C&F.

SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 1.1 million metric tons (mmt) to 45.7 mmt, compared with 40.8 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 42.2 mmt. The forecast was revised amid strong export activity in recent months, as well as relatively high official crop figures.

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