Andrey Sizov
28.02.2025
On Thursday, grain prices plummeted. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.62/bu ($206/mt), down 3.0% from Wednesday. The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas City fell to $5.85/bu ($215/mt), down 2.2%. The May Euronext wheat contract closed at €227.75/mt ($237/mt), down 1.0%. The May U.S. corn contract dropped to $4.85/bu ($215/mt), down 2.2%.
Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon: “The grain market faced intense pressure on Thursday, caught in a ‘perfect storm’ of weak exports, higher-than-expected U.S. acreage forecasts, and escalating tariff threats. The USDA’s 2025 corn and wheat acreage projections exceeded trade estimates, while President Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods—along with a potential additional 10% tax on Chinese imports—sent ripples through the market. A stronger U.S. Dollar Index, which jumped 0.8%—its biggest daily gain since December—added further headwinds. Meanwhile, expectations of a Black Sea truce weighed on wheat, as President Zelensky heads to the U.S. to sign a ‘minerals deal’ with Trump on Friday, fueling hopes of de-escalation in the region.”
The USDA released its first estimates for U.S. grain planted area in the 2025/26 season. Corn planted area is projected at 38.0 million hectares, up from 36.7 million hectares last year and above the market estimate of 37.9 million hectares. Wheat planted area is estimated at 19.0 million hectares, up from 18.7 million hectares last year and slightly above the market forecast of 18.9 million hectares.
The USDA projects U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025/26 at 49.8 million metric tons, compared to 39.1 million metric tons this season and the market estimate of 38.5 million metric tons. Wheat ending stocks are estimated at 22.5 million metric tons, up from 21.6 million metric tons this season and in line with the market forecast of 22.6 million metric tons.
For the week ending February 20, U.S. exporters sold 269,000 metric tons of wheat, below the market estimate of 300,000–600,000 metric tons. Corn sales for the same period totaled 795,000 metric tons, falling short of the expected 900,000–1,650,000 metric tons.
As of February 26, the share of Argentine corn rated in poor condition declined to 29%, down from 30% the previous week, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. A year ago, 13% of the crop was in poor condition.
The European association of agricultural organizations and farmer cooperatives, Copa-Cogeca, proposed delaying the implementation of tariffs on fertilizers from Russia and Belarus by one year. The association also called for an expedited process to remove tariffs on imports from third countries.
March weather in India is expected to be significantly hotter than normal, creating unfavorable conditions for wheat and other crops, Reuters reported, citing officials from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
SovEcon has lowered its Russian wheat export for the 2024/25 season by 0.6 million metric tons (MMT) to 42.2 MMT. Last season, Russia shipped 52.4 MMT, with a three-year average of 44.2 MMT. The revision reflects the slow shipment pace.
