Andrey Sizov
27.02.2026
Most grain futures rose on Thursday. May SRW wheat settled at $5.74/bu ($211/mt; +0.8% vs. Wednesday). May HRW wheat slipped to $5.62/bu ($207/mt; -0.4%). May Euronext wheat closed at €197.75/mt ($233/mt; +0.6%). May U.S. corn rose to $4.43/bu ($175/mt; +0.3%).
Andrey Sizov: «Markets sold off at the open after Chinese media flagged strained preparations for a potential Trump–Xi summit, alongside weak U.S. export data. The tone shifted later, however, as firmer crude — amid lingering uncertainty over U.S.–Iran talks — helped fuel a broad rebound.»
Argentina this week sold about 40,000 tons of wheat to a Florida mill in a rare shipment into the U.S., driven by a steep price discount to domestic HRW and ample Argentine supply. The cargo is reportedly headed to a Tampa-area facility set up to handle imports.
For the week ended Feb. 19, U.S. exporters sold 0.69 mmt of corn, below market expectations of 0.90-1.80 mmt, USDA data showed. Wheat sales totaled 0.24 mmt versus estimates of 0.25-0.50 mmt.
As of Feb. 25, Argentina’s corn harvest was 3.6% complete versus 5.4% a year earlier, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. About 43% of the crop was rated good or excellent, down from 46% a week earlier but up from 20% a year ago.
In France, the share of soft wheat rated good or excellent fell to 84% as of Feb. 23, down from 88% a week earlier, FranceAgriMer data showed. The figure was 73% a year earlier.
Indonesia may struggle to meet new commitments to buy U.S. wheat, Reuters reported, citing traders familiar with the matter. Sources said the country may be able to purchase no more than 1.3 mmt in 2026, well below a target of 2.0 mmt.
India’s meteorological service expects both maximum and minimum temperatures to run well above average through March, Reuters reported.
Saudi Arabia’s GFSA will hold a tender on Feb. 27 to buy 655 tmt of wheat for shipment in May-July. In January, GFSA bought 907 tmt of wheat at $259-$262/mt C&F.
In February, SovEcon lowered its 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 0.3 mln t to 45.4 mln t. The export estimate for the following season was raised by 2.1 mln t to 41.7 mln t. The downgrade for the current season reflects weaker competitiveness of Russian wheat, while the higher outlook for next season is supported by favorable crop prospects.
With volatility returning and geopolitical uncertainty rising, understanding Black Sea wheat and corn supply dynamics is critical ahead of the 2026 harvest cycle. Join our webinar on March 3 hosted by Andrey Sizov, a leading Black Sea grain market analyst, for traders, merchandisers, funds, processors and risk managers exposed to regional supply risk.
