Andrey Sizov
26.02.2026
On Wednesday, wheat futures extended losses. May SRW wheat settled at $5.70/bu ($209/mt; -0.6% vs. Tuesday). May HRW wheat slipped to $5.64/bu ($207/mt; -0.5%). May Euronext wheat closed at €196.50/mt ($232/mt; -0.4%). May U.S. corn rose to $4.42/bu ($174/mt; +0.8%).
Ukraine harvested 60.8 mmt of grain in 2025, up from 56.3 mmt a year earlier, the country’s state statistics service said in preliminary data. Corn crop was put at 30.7 mmt versus 26.9 mmt a year earlier, and wheat at 23.3 mmt versus 22.4 mmt.
In February, SovEcon lowered its 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 0.3 mln t to 45.4 mln t. The export estimate for the following season was raised by 2.1 mln t to 41.7 mln t. The downgrade for the current season reflects weaker competitiveness of Russian wheat, while the higher outlook for next season is supported by favorable crop prospects.
With volatility returning and geopolitical uncertainty rising, understanding Black Sea wheat and corn supply dynamics is critical ahead of the 2026 harvest cycle. Join our webinar on March 3 hosted by Andrey Sizov, a leading Black Sea grain market analyst, for traders, merchandisers, funds, processors and risk managers exposed to regional supply risk.
