Andrey Sizov
11.02.2026
On Tuesday, most grain futures were steady. The March SRW wheat contract closed at $5.28/bu ($194/mt; -0.1% vs. Monday). March HRW wheat rose to $5.30/bu ($195/mt; +0.3%). The March Euronext wheat contract closed at €189.50/mt ($225/mt; unchanged). The March U.S. corn contract was unchanged at $4.29/bu ($169/mt).
USDA released its February WASDE update. U.S. 2025/26 corn ending stocks were cut to 54.0 mln t (-2.5 mln t vs. January; -2.6 mln t vs. the average market estimate), while wheat ending stocks were raised to 25.3 mln t (+0.1 mln t; +0.3 mln t). USDA also lowered global corn ending stocks to 289.0 mln t (-1.9 mln t; -1.5 mln t) and global wheat ending stocks to 277.5 mln t (-0.7 mln t vs. January and the market estimate).
USDA cut its forecast for Ukraine’s corn exports by 1.0 mln t to 22.0 mln t. Forecasts for Russian corn exports were unchanged at 3.0 mln t, while forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian wheat exports were unchanged at 44.0 mln t and 14.0 mln t, respectively.
France’s Agriculture Ministry revised its estimate for soft winter wheat area to 4.59 mln ha from 4.56 mln ha in December. The area is up 2.8% YoY but 0.3% below average.
In Russia’s Stavropol region, 98.8% of winter crops (excluding rapeseed) had emerged on 2.0 mln ha, Kommersant reported, citing regional authorities. About 98% of the stands are rated good to excellent.
From July 1 to Feb. 10, the EU shipped 13.4 mln t of soft wheat, up from 13.2 mln t a year earlier, according to European Commission data. Export figures for Poland, Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete, the Commission’s analysts said.
From Feb. 1 to Feb. 9, Ukraine exported 0.6 mln t of grain, down from 0.9 mln t as of Feb. 10, 2025, Economy Ministry data showed. Total shipments since the start of the season reached 19.5 mln t versus 26.6 mln t a year earlier.
In January, SovEcon cut its forecast for Ukraine corn exports by 1.0 mmt to 25.8 mmt. This is above last year’s 21.9 mmt but well below the 29.4 mmt shipped in the 2023/24 season. The forecast was revised amid logistical problems.
