Andrey Sizov
03.12.2025
On Tuesday grain futures rose. March SRW wheat closed at $5.41/bu ($199/mt), up 1.1% from Monday. March HRW wheat increased to $5.33/bu ($196/mt), up 1.2%. March Euronext wheat settled at €191.00/mt ($222/mt), up 1.3%. March U.S. corn climbed to $4.50/bu ($177/mt), up 1.1%.
Andrey Sizov:
Grain markets opened lower but rallied after President Vladimir Putin warned that Russia could “cut Ukraine off from the sea” if attacks on Russian-linked civilian vessels continue.
Prices later pulled back from intraday highs but still closed firmly in positive territory.
At this stage, we are not sure the Kremlin is ready to escalate Black Sea tensions to a point that would significantly disrupt exports on either side.
The European Commission raised its 2025 EU wheat production estimate by 0.8 mmt to 134.2 mmt. The corn production forecast was also increased by 0.8 mmt to 57.6 mmt.
From January to November 2025 Kazakhstan shipped 390,000 mt of wheat to Algeria, the country’s foreign ministry reported. Official statistics show that in previous calendar years total wheat exports to Algeria did not exceed 20,000 mt.
From July 1 to Nov. 30, EU soft wheat exports amounted to 9.7 mmt versus 10.1 mmt a year earlier, according to European Commission data. Export figures for grain from Poland, Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete, Commission analysts cautioned.
From Nov. 1 to Dec. 1, Ukraine exported 3.0 mmt of grain versus 3.6 mmt as of Nov. 29, 2024, Economy Ministry data show. Total shipments since the start of the season reached 12.4 mmt versus 18.0 mmt by late November 2024.
