Andrey Sizov
24.12.2025
On Tuesday, grain futures continued to rise. Chicago SRW wheat for March settled at $5.17/bu ($190/mt; +0.3% vs. Monday). Kansas City HRW wheat for March rose to $5.28/bu ($194/mt; +1.3%). Euronext wheat for March closed at €189.00/mt ($223/mt; +0.4%). US corn for March edged up to $4.47/bu ($176/mt; +0.1%).
Russia’s government said the export quota for wheat, meslin, barley and corn for Feb. 15-June 30, 2026, will total 20 mmt.
Russian grain exports in the 2025/26 season are forecast at 53-55 mmt, in line with the five-year average, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said.
Over the past two weeks, some Ukrainian farmers have shifted shipments away from ports to western border crossings or deliveries to grain elevators, even though port prices were higher, Barva Invest said. The move was driven by more frequent attacks on port infrastructure.
EU soft wheat exports from July 1 to Dec. 21 totaled 10.8 mmt versus 11.0 mmt a year earlier, European Commission data showed. Export figures for Poland, Bulgaria and Ireland are incomplete.
Ukraine exported 1.8 mmt of grain from Dec. 1 to Dec. 22, down from 2.1 mmt as of Dec. 23, 2024, Economy Ministry data showed. Total shipments since the start of the season reached 14.3 mmt versus 20.5 mmt a year earlier.
SovEcon estimates wheat exports in December at 3.9 million metric tons (mmt), above 3.4 mmt a year earlier and close to the record 4.1 mmt set in 2022. Russian wheat exports accelerated amid improving export margins.
Russia has completed the 2026 winter-crop sowing campaign. As of mid-December, farmers had planted 16.1 million hectares of winter wheat, slightly below 16.2 million hectares a year earlier and down from 16.9 million hectares two years ago. Russia’s winter wheat area peaked at 17.8 million hectares in December 2021 before entering a downward trend, reflecting weaker profitability in grain production following the introduction of wheat export taxes.
