SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – December 22, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Friday, grain futures were mostly steady. Chicago SRW wheat for March settled at $5.10/bu ($187/mt; +0.4% vs. Thursday). Kansas City HRW wheat for March slipped to $5.15/bu ($189/mt; -0.3%). Euronext wheat for March closed at €186.75/mt ($219/mt; +0.4%). US corn for March fell to $4.44/bu ($175/mt; -0.2%).

Brazil’s Safras cut its 2025/26 corn crop estimate by 0.7 mmt to 142.9 mmt, with most of the downgrade expected in the first corn crop, the agency’s analysts said.

The European Commission raised its 2025/26 EU soft wheat production forecast by 0.2 mmt to 134.4 mmt.

As of Dec. 18, Ukrainian farmers had threshed 10.9 mln ha of grains (94% of the plan), harvesting 56.6 mmt at an average yield of 5.19 mt/ha, Ukraine’s Economy Ministry data showed. Corn harvest totaled 26.4 mmt from 3.8 mln ha (86%), versus 25.2 mmt from 3.8 mln ha (98%) a year earlier.

From Dec. 24, Russia’s wheat export tax will rise to 109.1 rub/mt from zero a week earlier, Russia’s Agriculture Ministry said.

Algeria’s state grain agency OAIC will hold a tender on Dec. 23 for a nominal 50,000 mt of durum wheat of optional origin, with shipment in February-March 2026, European traders said.

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