SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – December 11, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Tuesday, grain prices rose. March SRW wheat closed at $5.62/bu ($206/mt), up 0.5% from Monday. March HRW wheat in Kansas rose to $5.66/bu ($208/mt), up 1.3%. March Euronext wheat closed at €229.00/mt ($241/mt), up 0.8%. March U.S. corn increased to $4.49/bu ($177/mt), up 1.7%.

The USDA released its December WASDE report, significantly reducing its 2024/25 corn ending stocks estimate. U.S. corn stocks were lowered by 5.1 million mt from November and analyst expectations to 44.1 million mt; global corn stocks were reduced by 7.2 million mt from November and 7.7 million mt from analyst expectations to 296.4 million mt. The revision reflects higher expected global corn consumption.

The USDA lowered its U.S. wheat ending stocks estimate by 0.6 million mt compared to forecasts and analyst expectations, bringing it to 21.6 million mt. The global wheat stocks estimate was raised by 0.2 million mt from November and 0.3 million mt from analyst expectations to 257.9 million mt.

The USDA also reduced its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1.0 million mt to 47.0 million mt.

The vessel carrying the first shipment of 430,000 mt of wheat purchased by GASC in September has departed Russian ports, according to LSEG data.

The FAO Food Price Index rose by 0.5 points to 127.5 in November 2024, marking its highest level since April 2023.

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