Andrey Sizov
10.12.2025
On Tuesday, U.S. grain futures were flat to higher. March SRW wheat settled at $5.34/bu ($196/mt), unchanged from Monday. March HRW wheat rose to $5.27/bu ($194/mt; +0.1%). March Euronext wheat closed at €190.25/mt ($221/mt; -0.3%). March U.S. corn futures climbed to $4.48/bu ($176/mt; +1.0%).
USDA released its December WASDE update. The forecast for U.S. wheat ending stocks was left unchanged at 24.5 mmt (flat month on month; +0.3 mmt vs market expectations), while the corn ending stocks forecast was cut to 51.5 mmt (-3.2 mmt MoM; -2.5 mmt vs expectations. The projection for world ending stocks was raised to 274.9 mmt for wheat (+3.4 mmt vs November; +2.1 mmt vs expectations), while global corn stocks were lowered to 279.2 mmt (-2.2 mmt MoM; -1.6 mmt vs expectations).
USDA increased its forecast for Russia’s 2025 wheat production by 1.0 mmt to 87.5 mmt and raised its corn forecast by 0.4 mmt to 14.5 mmt. The estimate for Ukraine’s corn crop was cut by 3.0 mmt to 29.0 mmt.
European grain trade association Coceral published its first estimates for 2026 grain production. EU soft wheat output is projected at 143.9 mmt, down from 147.5 mmt in 2025. Corn production is forecast at 58.9 mmt, up from 57.1 mmt a year earlier.
Brazilian consultancy AgRural issued its first estimate for Brazil’s 2025/26 corn crop at 135.3 mmt, down from a record 141.1 mmt last season.
Argentina’s Economy Ministry cut export taxes, lowering the wheat export tax to 7.5% from 9.5%, corn to 8.5% from 9.5%, and soybeans to 24% from 26%.
From July 1 to Dec. 7, the EU exported 10.2 mmt of soft wheat, compared with 10.5 mmt a year earlier, according to European Commission data. Export figures for grain shipments from Poland, Bulgaria and Ireland remain incomplete, Commission analysts warned.
From Dec. 1–5, Ukraine exported 0.5 mmt of grain, in line with the 0.5 mmt shipped by Dec. 6, 2024, Economy Ministry data showed. Since the start of the season, total exports have reached 12.8 mmt, down from 18.9 mmt by the same point a year earlier.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s corn exports in the 2025/26 season (July–June) by 0.4 million metric tons (mmt) to 26.8 mmt amid slow shipment pace in the first half of the season and abundant supply on the global market.
