SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – August 4, 2025

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

Grain markets declined on Friday. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.17/bu ($190/mt; -1.3% from Thursday). The September HRW wheat contract fell to $5.19/bu ($191/mt; -1.4%). The September Euronext wheat contract settled at €194.50/mt ($225/mt; -0.9%). The September U.S. corn contract dropped to $3.89/bu ($153/mt; -1.2%).

Poland’s Central Statistical Office projects 2025 wheat production at 12.8 mmt, up 3% from last year.

As of July 31, Ukrainian farmers harvested 11.4 mmt of wheat (down from 19.4 mmt a year earlier) from 3.1 mlm ha (4.5 mln ha) at an average yield of 3.7 mt/ha (4.4 mt/ha), according to the Ministry of Economy. Total grain harvest reached 15.4 mmt, compared with 24.7 mmt last year.

Starting August 6, Russia’s wheat export tax will be set at 19.4 rub/mt, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. The rate had remained at zero for the past four weeks.

More Articles for You

Russia wheat exports in July lowest since 2017/18

Russian wheat exports totaled an estimated 1.6 mmt in July, the lowest for the month since 2017/18, according to a …

Russia grain export forecast cut as Azov navigation remains closed

SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 44.6 mmt from 46.5 mmt as navigation in the …

Russia wheat crop forecast cut to 88.3 mmt

SovEcon has cut its 2026 Russian wheat crop forecast to 88.3 mmt from 88.9 mmt, according to the company’s latest …

New-season Russian wheat export forecast raised on larger stocks

Larger carry-in stocks are expected to support Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 despite a smaller crop and muted early-season demand.

Russia starts new harvest with wheat yields up 29% y/y

Early harvest data from southern Russia show wheat and barley yields above last year after favorable weather.

Russian Port Wheat Prices Fall to Lowest Since Early February

Port bids fell as the ruble strengthened, however negative margins should support Russian and Black Sea wheat export prices.