SovEcon: Russian and global grain market news – August 2, 2024

Daily news and market insights from a leading firm focused on the Black Sea grain markets research

On Thursday, U.S. wheat prices rose. The December SRW wheat contract closed at $5.57/bushel ($204/mt; +0.8% compared to Wednesday). HRW wheat in Kansas increased to $5.71/bushel ($210/mt; +0.9%). The September Euronext wheat contract closed at €226.75/mt ($245/mt; -0.3%). The September U.S. corn contract fell to $3.98/bushel ($157/mt; -0.3%).

The Russian government maintained its forecast for total grain production at 132 mmt, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev said during a meeting on the situation in Russia’s agro-industrial complex. According to Patrushev, approximately 40% of the areas have been harvested, yielding nearly 64 mmt of grain and leguminous crops.

Sales of the 2023/24 U.S. corn crop amounted to 0.17 mmt, compared to the estimate of 0.28-0.60 mmt; sales of the 2024/25 crop totaled 0.72 mmt, against the estimate of 0.40-0.80 mmt.

Harvesting in France continues to lag behind average levels, according to a report by FranceAgriMer. As of July 27, 67% of the crops were harvested, compared to 86% last year and 84% on average over five years. The share of crops in good and excellent condition remained unchanged from the previous week at 50% (78% last year).

The outlook for the 2024/25 Australian wheat crop has improved due to abundant rainfall, according to StoneX analysts. Production is estimated at 30 mmt, up from the previously expected 25 mmt.

As of July 31, the corn harvest in Argentina was 92% complete, reported the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The production forecast remains unchanged at 46.5 mmt.

Wheat planting in Argentina has been completed, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. The exchange estimates that the share of wheat crops in normal and excellent condition has decreased to 84% from 94% a month earlier and 88% last year. The deterioration in crop conditions was caused by dry weather in the country.

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