Andrey Sizov
11.08.2025
Grain futures declined on Friday. The September SRW wheat contract closed at $5.14/bu ($189/mt; -0.7% from Thursday). The September HRW wheat contract fell to $5.18/bu ($190/mt; -0.6%). The September Euronext wheat contract settled at €196.50/mt ($229/mt; -0.5%). The September U.S. corn contract dropped to $3.83/bu ($151/mt; -0.5%).
Bulgaria harvested 7.1 mmt of wheat, up 10% from last year, according to the country’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food.
Winter crop plantings for the 2026 crop will total about 20 mln ha, close to last year’s level, Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut told reporters.
On Tuesday, the USDA will release its August WASDE update. Analysts estimate U.S. wheat stocks at 24.0 mmt (882 mln bu; -0.2 mmt from the July forecast) and corn stocks at 33.6 mmt (1.321 bln bu; -0.4 mmt from July). Global wheat stocks are estimated at 261.6 mmt (+0.1 mmt from July) and corn stocks at 278.5 mmt (+6.4 mmt).
From Aug. 13, the Russian wheat export tax will be set at zero, according to Agriculture Ministry data. Last week, the tax was 19.4 rubles/mt.
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production by 0.3 million metric tons (mmt) to 83.3 mmt. A year earlier, Russia harvested 82.6 mmt of wheat. The production forecast was revised downward due to worsening crop conditions in the South.
