Andrey Sizov
11.04.2025
On Thursday, wheat futures declined. The May SRW wheat contract closed at $5.38/bu ($198/mt), down 0.8% from Wednesday. The May HRW wheat contract in Kansas City fell to $5.58/bu ($205/mt; -1.8%). The May Euronext wheat contract dropped to €216.50/mt ($243/mt; -1.5%). The May U.S. corn contract rose to $4.83/bu ($190/mt; +1.9%).
The USDA released an updated WASDE report. The agency lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season by 1 million metric tons (mmt) to 44 MMT. The Russian wheat crop estimate remained unchanged at 81.6 MMT (excluding Crimea).
The USDA also cut its forecast for U.S. corn ending stocks in 2024/25 more than expected, citing higher export projections. Ending stocks are now estimated at 37.2 mmt, below the market estimate of 38.4 mmt and March’s 39.1 mmt. The export estimate was raised to 64.8 mmt from 62.2 mmt in March.
On Thursday, President Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, up from 125%.
The European Union said it would suspend its retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports for 90 days following Washington’s announcement of a tariff pause.
Strategie Grains raised its estimate for EU soft wheat production in the 2025/26 season to 128.1 mmt from 127.5 mmt in March.
China’s Ministry of Agriculture lowered its 2024/25 corn import forecast to 7 mmt from 9 mmt previously and 23.4 mmt in the 2023/24 season.
Conab raised its 2024/25 Brazil corn crop forecast to 124.7 mmt from 122.8 mmt a month earlier. The export forecast was left unchanged at 34 mmt.
According to FranceAgriMer, the share of French soft wheat rated good or excellent declined to 75% from 76% a week earlier and 64% a year ago.
On April 10, a mass strike began in Argentina, organized by unions opposing the policies of President Javier Milei. The strike is disrupting operations at Rosario, the country’s largest agricultural port.
