Andrey Sizov
21.05.2025
SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat production forecast by 1.2 million metric tons (MMT) to 81.0 MMT (vs 82.6 MMT in 2024). SovEcon also published its first estimate for Russia’s total 2025 grain and legume crop, projecting it at 127.6 MMT, up from 125.9 MMT a year earlier. The total crop is expected to grow amid increased barley, corn, and other grains output, offsetting the anticipated decline in wheat production.
The main reason for the higher wheat forecast is the improvement in weather conditions in recent weeks. However, the current conditions are unlikely to fully offset the issues that affected winter wheat last fall and earlier this spring.
Barley production in 2025 is estimated at 17.4 MMT (vs 16.7 MMT a year ago), and corn output at 14.6 MMT (vs 14.0 MMT). The total grain and legume crop is expected to grow due to higher output of barley, corn, and other grains, which will offset the expected drop in wheat production.
The total planted area under grains is expected to decline for a second consecutive year to 45.7 million hectares (mln ha), down from 46.1 mln ha. Farmers are reducing plantings amid export taxes and declining profitability. Another contributing factor is a projected shift from grains to oilseeds, which remain more profitable to grow.
The USDA released its first 2025/26 grain production forecast, estimating Russian wheat production at 83.0 MMT (excluding Crimea), barley at 18.0 MMT, and corn at 15.0 MMT. In 2024, wheat production in Crimea amounted to 0.9 MMT.
If weather conditions remain favorable, the forecasts for wheat and total grain production may be revised upward. However, we believe the growing optimism about the new crop is premature.
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