Andrey Sizov
16.09.2025
SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2025 by 1.1 mmt to 87.2 mmt. The figure is expected to be well above last year’s 82.6 mmt and close to the multi-year average of 88.3 mmt. The revision follows record-high yields in Siberia and the Urals.
The wheat production estimate for Siberia was raised by 1.1 mmt to 9.7 mmt, and for the Urals by 0.3 mmt to 4.1 mmt. Both regions are expected to post record final yields.
For the second year in a row, wheat harvesting in the Urals and Siberia is progressing slower than average due to heavy rainfall. However, this year yields are record-high thanks to favorable weather for most of the season.
Over the next two weeks, predominantly dry weather is expected across most of Russia. This could accelerate harvesting in the Urals and Siberia.
At the same time, crop prospects in European Russia have worsened somewhat. The wheat production forecast for the Central region was lowered by 0.3 mmt to 21.3 mmt. Yields in the region declined toward the end of the harvest, likely due to heavy rains.
In September, USDA raised its Russian wheat production forecast by 1.5 mmt to 85.0 mmt.
The steady upgrades to Russia’s crop outlook in recent weeks are one of the major bearish stories for the global wheat market. Still, much of this improvement is in the Asian part of the country, where moving wheat to ports is costly and slow — more than 2,000 km from the Urals to Azov ports and over 3,000 km from Western Siberia.
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