Andrey Sizov
17.04.2025
SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat production, to 79.7 million metric tons (MMT), up by 1.1 MMT. This revision reflects better-than-expected winter survival of the crop.
The winter wheat production forecast has been increased to 52.2 MMT from 50.7 MMT, while the forecast for spring wheat has been reduced to 27.5 MMT from 27.9 MMT.
The plants have weathered the winter well, and their condition has improved. According to Roshydromet, only 5% of crops across Russia were in poor condition in March, a significant improvement from the record 37.1% in November.
Usually, crop conditions improve over the winter, according to Roshydromet assessments, with the most pronounced gains seen in seasons that start with abnormally poor field conditions, such as 2015 and 2021.
Despite recent optimism regarding the future Russian crop, we still consider it premature. Although weather conditions in March were favorable, the overall crop condition remains below average. Given the ongoing soil moisture deficit in many regions and dry weather forecasts for the coming weeks, we do not anticipate any significant further improvements.
Despite the increased forecast, this year’s harvest is expected to be the lowest since 2021, when 76.0 MMT were harvested. In 2024 Russia produced 82.6 MMT.
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