Andrey Sizov
24.03.2026
SovEcon has raised its Russian wheat export forecasts for both the current and next seasons, reflecting stronger market conditions and improving demand.
The 2025/26 wheat export forecast has been increased by 1.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 46.5 MMT, while the estimate for 2026/27 has been raised by 2.1 MMT to 43.8 MMT.
Wheat prices have strengthened in recent weeks, supported not only by fund short covering but also by a growing narrative around risks to the new crop amid sharply rising fertilizer and energy prices. A weaker ruble and steady importer demand have also supported export activity, with Russian 12.5% wheat FOB prices rising by around $6 in recent weeks to about $240/mt, the highest level since August 2025.
The recent move also reflects a shift in market sentiment. After a prolonged period dominated by surplus-driven narratives, the market appears less prepared for emerging risks, with importers becoming more active. Wheat demand remains relatively inelastic, which can amplify price moves when supply concerns arise.
Crop prospects across the Northern Hemisphere remain broadly favorable for now. However, risks are gradually building. In the United States, winter wheat conditions are deteriorating amid ongoing dryness. At the same time, in Europe and Ukraine — Russia’s key competitors — sharply rising fertilizer prices could weigh on production, with Ukraine particularly exposed.
Andrey Sizov, head of SovEcon, said:
“The market had been lulled by persistent surplus narratives and is now adjusting to a different risk environment. Importers are becoming more active, while demand for wheat is relatively inelastic. Combined with rising input costs in Europe and Ukraine and worsening weather in the U.S., this increases the market’s sensitivity to any supply disruptions.”
Global wheat prices are expected to remain supported in the coming months, particularly if weather or input-related risks materialize further.
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