Andrey Sizov
08.07.2025
SovEcon has raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 2.1 million metric tons (mmt) to 42.9 mmt. Wheat exports in the previous season are estimated at 40.8 mmt. The forecast was increased following an upward revision in production estimates and improved competitiveness of Russian wheat.
An improved crop outlook led to a revision in the export estimate. In June, SovEcon raised its wheat production forecast by 2.0 mmt to 83.0 mmt due to better crop conditions in the Central region.
Another supporting factor was the improved competitiveness of Russian wheat. In early July, new-crop Russian wheat was trading at $225–228 per metric ton FOB, while Bulgarian and Romanian wheat was offered `at $230 per metric ton FOB.
Exporters will likely be able to lower FOB prices if needed while maintaining strong margins.
At the same time, Russia may face strong competition at the start of the season from Romania and Bulgaria, where good harvests are expected. Ukraine may also become a more active competitor, although its agricultural exports to the EU will remain restricted.
In June, the USDA left its forecast for Russian grain exports in 2025/26 unchanged at 45.0 mmt.
Active wheat exports from the Black Sea region will weigh on global prices. However, early-season sales from Russia are expected to be less aggressive than in 2024/25 due to lower domestic supply.
Subscribe to our newsletter to receive Black Sea analytics delivered directly to your inbox!
