Andrey Sizov
27.01.2026
SovEcon raised its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2025/26 season by 1.1 million metric tons (mmt) to 45.7 mmt, compared with 40.8 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 42.2 mmt. The forecast was revised amid strong export activity in recent months, as well as relatively high official crop figures.
Russian wheat shipments have increased sharply in recent months. In December, Russia shipped 4.2 mmt of wheat, the highest December volume in the past eight years, while November shipments reached a record 5.2 mmt for the month.
Shipments are also expected to remain relatively high in the coming months amid strong demand from key importers. In late December, Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr purchased 0.7 mmt of wheat, with a significant share likely to be sourced from Russia. Saudi Arabia’s GFSA bought 0.9 mmt in mid-January, the largest volume since February 2024, including grain from the Black Sea region.
Relatively high Russian wheat supply also supported the upward revision to the export forecast. According to preliminary Rosstat data published in December, wheat production in 2025 totaled 91.4 mmt, compared with most market estimates of 88.0–89.0 mmt. In December, SovEcon estimated 2025 wheat production at 88.8 mmt.
A 20 mmt export quota for major grains will take effect in mid-February, but in our view it will not materially affect shipments. Wheat exports during the quota period from mid-February through July are estimated at about 16 mmt.
The first wheat export forecast for the 2026/27 season stands at 39.6 mmt, down 6.1 mmt from the estimate for the current season. Shipments are expected to decline due to tighter supply amid a relatively small crop. SovEcon estimates wheat production in 2026 at 83.8 mmt.
Domestic consumption in the next season is expected to remain unchanged amid a slowdown in livestock growth to zero.
In the coming months, we expect some increase in export shipments. However, we do not anticipate a significant acceleration in exports, given that a large share of stocks is located far from export regions. Additional limiting factors include a strong ruble and stable export prices.
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