Andrey Sizov
17.02.2026
In February, SovEcon raised its 2026/27 wheat crop forecast by 2.1 mln t to 85.9 mln t. In 2025, Russian farmers harvested 90.9 mln t of wheat. The forecast was revised up, reflecting better-than-average crop conditions, although the risk window remains ahead.
Weather conditions for the new crop during autumn and winter were generally favorable. Russia accumulated relatively high soil moisture reserves in the fall, and abundant snowfall over the winter is expected to ensure good moisture availability at the start of the growing season.
SovEcon estimates crop conditions as above average. In early February, the Russian Agriculture Ministry said 97% of winter crops were in normal condition, compared with 87% a year earlier — the highest level since 2022.
Frosts of up to minus 30 degrees Celsius in late January and early February did not cause noticeable damage to crops. The cold spell was brief, and heavy snow cover protected plants, keeping temperatures in the topsoil well above critical levels.
At the same time, risks remain related to ice crust formation in fields in the Central region. For now, farmers report no significant problems linked to ice crust, but if it persists for three to four weeks, it could lead to crop losses due to suffocation.
The revised forecast also reflects a 0.2 million hectare increase in projected pre-harvest winter wheat area to 15.8 million hectares (unchanged year-on-year), due to lower expected winterkill. Spring wheat area is seen at 10.7 million hectares, down from 11.1 million hectares last year.
Current weather conditions are favorable for the new crop. However, the riskiest window for winter wheat still lies ahead in March–May. In recent years, weather anomalies during this period have become more frequent. For example, the late cold snap in April–May 2024 damaged wheat in Russia’s South and triggered a roughly 30% rally in CBOT wheat within weeks.
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