Andrey Sizov
29.05.2025
SovEcon raised its 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 1.1 million metric tons (MMT) to 40.8 MMT. The first estimate for total grain exports in the new season is 49.4 MMT, compared with 50.2 MMT in 2024/25. Wheat exports are expected to remain close to average levels, while the start of the new export campaign could be sluggish.
The upward revision of the wheat export forecast reflects an increase in the production outlook. In May, SovEcon raised its 2025 wheat crop estimate by 1.2 MMT to 81.0 MMT (vs 82.6 MMT in 2024) due to favorable weather conditions.
Barley exports are forecast at 2.7 MMT, down from 3.6 MMT, and corn exports are seen at 3.0 MMT, up from 2.8 MMT.
The start of the new export campaign may be slow due to relatively high ruble prices and a potentially average crop in the South, particularly in the Rostov region.
Another contributing factor could be historically low wheat ending stocks in 2024/25. According to Rosstat, as of May 1, Russian on-farm wheat stocks stood at 7.8 MMT, down 31% year over year and 6% below average.
The USDA has released its export forecasts for the 2025/26 season, placing Russian wheat exports at 45.0 MMT. A similar situation occurred last year, when the USDA’s initial forecast proved overly optimistic and was later revised downward. In our view, the agency continues to significantly underestimate domestic consumption in Russia, which results in an overstatement of the country’s export potential.
Despite the upward revision to exports, the projected volume remains well below the levels seen in the 2022/23 and 2023/24 seasons. Combined with the ongoing drawdown in Russian stocks, this is likely to support global prices.
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