Andrey Sizov
09.12.2025
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Ukraine’s corn exports in the 2025/26 season (July–June) by 0.4 million metric tons (mmt) to 26.8 mmt amid slow shipment pace in the first half of the season and abundant supply on the global market.
Cumulative Ukrainian corn exports from July through November totaled 3.7 mmt, the lowest level in eight years. The main reason for sluggish exports has been harvest delays caused by rains: as of early December, Ukrainian farmers had harvested 78% of corn area, compared with 96% a year earlier.
Additional challenges for Ukrainian shipments stem from high global corn supply. The USDA projects U.S. corn exports this season at a record-high 78 mmt. Exports from major South American producers (Argentina and Brazil) are expected to reach 80 mmt, the highest level in five years.
More frequent strikes on Ukraine’s rail infrastructure (inc. depots) have also created difficulties for moving grain within the country.
In November, Ukraine’s corn exports saw a seasonal uptick: 1.8 mmt were shipped, up from 0.9 mmt in October, as harvest activity increased. Still, exports remain below last year’s 2.6 mmt and the multiyear average of 2.9 mmt.
The USDA in November projected Ukraine’s corn exports at 24.5 mmt.
SovEcon estimates Ukraine’s 2025 corn crop at 32.0 mmt versus 26.9 mmt a year earlier, despite harvest delays. With the export program accelerating later than usual, the peak of shipments will likely shift to a later period, which may continue to put pressure on global prices given the ample world supply.
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