Andrey Sizov
15.08.2024
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat production by 1.8 million metric tons (MMT) to 82.9 MMT. This year’s wheat crop is anticipated to be significantly below last year’s 92.8 MMT and the five-year average of 86.7 MMT. New forecast reflects Rosstat’s lower estimate of planted areas and a decrease in yields in several regions.
Rosstat estimated the wheat planted area at 28.5 million hectares (mln ha), compared to 29.8 mln ha the previous year and SovEcon’s estimate of 29.2 mln ha.
The most significant adjustments were made in the Siberian Federal District, where the wheat area was recorded at 9.8 mln ha versus the expected 10.6, likely due to an increase in areas under rapeseed.
The wheat production forecast for the Central and Southern regions was lowered by 0.7 MMT to 17.5 MMT and 32.5 MMT respectively, and in the Volga region by 0.5 MMT to 18.3 MMT. In the first two regions, one of the reasons for the forecast revision were yields falling below expectations.
The yield estimates in the Central and Southern regions were lowered by 0.1 mt/ha to 3.8 mt/ha and 3.7 mt/ha respectively, due to dry weather in the regions.
A below-average wheat crop in Russia implies smaller exports in 2024/25, which could support global wheat prices later in the season.
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