Andrey Sizov
27.11.2024
In November, SovEcon reduced its forecast for Russian wheat exports by 1.8 million metric tons (MMT) to 44.1 MMT. The forecast was lowered due to expected tight export quotas.
This season’s export volume is anticipated to fall below last year’s 52.4 MMT, yet remain above the five-year average of 40.9 MMT.
From mid-February to June, tight export restrictions are expected to be implemented. Current consensus suggests the quota could be set at around 10 MMT, though it could be tighter.
Typically, quotas are set collectively for all major grains (wheat, corn, barley). However, this season wheat exports are expected to account for nearly the entire quota.
Russian wheat sales have declined from last month. As of November 26, the amount of outstanding sales was 2.1 MMT, down from 3.5 MMT.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) in its November WASDE report estimated Russian wheat exports at 48.0 MMT, significantly diverging from SovEcon’s assessment. We anticipate that U.S. analysts will need to substantially lower their estimates. With historically low global stocks, redistributing the shortfall to other exporters will be challenging, likely supporting global wheat prices.
A notable decrease in expectations for Russian exports could lend support to global wheat prices.
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