Andrey Sizov
25.03.2025
SovEcon has lowered its forecast for Russian wheat exports in the 2024/25 season by 1.5 million metric tons (MMT) to 40.7 MMT. This is lower than the 52.4 MMT shipped last year and the five-year average of 40.9 MMT. Russian wheat shipments have slowed due to low supply and negative exporter margins.
Total Russian wheat exports from July through February amounted to 32.6 MMT, compared to 33.8 MMT the previous year, according to SovEcon analysts. Russian wheat exports in February were 1.9 MMT, down from 2.3 MMT last year and well below the five-year average of 4.1 MMT.
Wheat exports continue to slow due to their low profitability. Exporters’ margins have been negative since the end of last year, compared to $5-10 per metric ton in the fall.
The low wheat supply also constrains export volumes. As of March 1, wheat stocks stood at 11.6 MMT, which is 34% lower than last year and 9% below the average.
The rapid strengthening of the ruble is complicating the situation for traders. The ruble has been gaining for the last two months, and while the export duty adjusts to these changes, the delay puts exporters at a disadvantage.
The current forecast suggests an acceleration of exports after a period of extremely slow shipments in recent months due to rising export prices, increased activity from importers, and a possible weakening of the ruble.
The export forecast for the new season has been raised to 39.1 MMT from 38.9 MMT due to higher initial stocks.
Modest export volumes from Russia towards the end of the season, amid reviving demand from importers and moderate prospects for the new crop, may support global prices in the remaining months of the season.
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