Andrey Sizov
03.07.2025
Harvesting of early grains has begun in southern Russia, SovEcon said in its weekly report. Initial yields in the country’s key agricultural regions are lower than last year due to a moisture deficit.
In Rostov, Russia’s top wheat-producing region, early grain yields are reported at 2.0 tons per hectare, down from 3.6 t/ha last year. In Krasnodar, yields are at 4.5 t/ha compared with 6.2 t/ha. In Stavropol, yields are at 4.0 t/ha, above last year’s 3.5 t/ha.
Initial yields in Krasnodar and Rostov are significantly below last year’s levels due to a moisture deficit. In contrast, soil moisture reserves in Stavropol are above normal.
Amid dry weather, a state of emergency has been declared in 19 out of 43 districts in Rostov. Similar measures have been introduced in 8 out of 34 districts in Krasnodar, mostly in the northern part of the region. The state of emergency enables farmers to apply for insurance payments and compensate for losses.
Eventually, we expect some improvement in yields as harvesting moves to stronger fields.
SovEcon estimates the wheat crop in the South at 31.5 million metric tons (mmt), down from 32.6 mmt a year earlier. The reduced crop outlook in the southern regions due to unfavorable weather has already been reflected in the forecast.
SovEcon estimates Russia’s 2025 wheat production at 83.0 mmt, up from 82.4 mmt a year earlier. This week, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture reaffirmed its forecast: 135 mmt of grains and 90 mmt of wheat.
Overall, the results are in line with our expectations, though they may prompt some market participants to revise their views on a “very good wheat crop in Russia.”
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