Andrey Sizov
03.03.2026
By the end of last week, average prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein in European Russia rose by 175 rubles to 13,400 rubles/mt ($175/mt), according to SovEcon price monitoring. This is the highest ruble-denominated level since late November, when quotations stood at 13,550 rubles/mt ($172/mt). Prices strengthened amid improved demand from exporters and processors, as well as limited supply.
Demand from exporters has picked up in recent weeks. After brief attempts to lower bids, traders gradually began raising them again amid active vessel arrivals. By late February, demand from domestic consumers also increased slightly.
Export quotations for Russian wheat in 2026 have been rising gradually. Since the start of the year through March, prices for 12.5% protein wheat strengthened to $234/mt FOB deep-sea ports from $226/mt. Import demand remains active. Futures markets have rallied sharply in recent weeks amid large-scale short covering by funds.
Supply from farmers has tightened somewhat after active sales in 2025. Sellers are once again waiting for higher prices. Another factor is expectations of further ruble weakening. From February lows, USDRUB has risen by about 2% to 77.2.
We do not rule out further strengthening of export and ruble prices in the near term. Rising geopolitical risks and the futures rally may support demand from major buyers. Limiting factors will include relatively high grain stocks in Russia and the difficult financial situation of many farmers. Higher freight rates are an additional negative factor for global prices, although their increase will be limited for key Black Sea routes.
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