Andrey Sizov
20.01.2026
As of Jan. 14, the average price for fourth-grade food wheat (typically 12.0-12.5% protein content) in European Russia fell to 13,050 rubles per metric ton ($165/mt) from 13,150 rubles/mt ($168/mt) a week earlier and 13,250 rubles/mt ($172/mt) a month earlier, according to SovEcon’s report. This is the lowest price since July 2024, when wheat was priced at 12,900 rubles/mt ($146/mt). Wheat prices declined amid high supply in regions distant from ports and relatively weak demand.
Domestic wheat supply remains generally ample, particularly in the Volga and Central regions, which posted large crops. Wheat prices in the Central region and the Volga fell by 400 rubles over the past month to 11,700 rubles/mt and 11,500 rubles/mt, respectively. The situation for farmers is challenging amid slow rail operations.
Demand for wheat from exporters has declined noticeably compared with late last year. The current shipment pace is slow. In the first two weeks of January, 0.7 mmt of wheat were shipped from Russian ports, compared with 0.8 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 1.3 mmt.
Wheat shipments from Russia’s main competitors have also declined. According to preliminary data, about 0.3 mmt of wheat were shipped from the EU in the first half of January, down from 0.6 mmt a year earlier. Ukraine shipped 0.3 mmt over the same period, compared with 0.4 mmt a year earlier.
Major importers are likely still waiting on the sidelines, expecting prices to decline further amid ample Southern Hemisphere supply. On Jan. 19, Algeria’s state agency OAIC bought 600–720 tmt of wheat at $253–254 per metric ton C&F in an international tender. A significant share of the supply is likely to come from Argentina, where export prices remain at multi-year lows of about $205–210/mt amid a record crop.
High wheat stocks held by domestic consumers remain an additional factor, prompting them to lower bids.
We do not rule out further declines in domestic prices in regions distant from ports. However, due to the high cost of internal logistics in Russia, this does not necessarily translate into lower export quotations.
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