Andrey Sizov
10.02.2026
In January, SovEcon cut its forecast for Ukraine corn exports by 1.0 mmt to 25.8 mmt. This is above last year’s 21.9 mmt but well below the 29.4 mmt shipped in the 2023/24 season. The forecast was revised amid logistical problems.
Shipments from Ukraine are running at historically slow pace. From July through January, Ukraine exported 8.8 mmt of corn, compared with 12.3 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 13.5 mmt. This is the lowest level since the 2017/18 season.
At the start of the season, exports were constrained by rain-related harvest delays. Because of the late start to harvesting, about 10% of planted area remained unharvested as of early 2026.
Logistical problems intensified later in the season due to missile strikes that damaged energy, rail, and port infrastructure. Power outages and damage to rolling stock complicated both grain deliveries to ports and vessel loading.
Another factor weighing on shipments through the Black Sea has been stormy weather in recent weeks. Shipments from Russian and Ukrainian ports have slowed amid rough seas.
USDA’s January estimate for Ukraine’s corn exports is 23.0 mln t, reflecting a lower crop estimate of 29.0 mln t. SovEcon estimates Ukraine’s corn crop at 31.8 mln t. SovEcon uses a July-June marketing year for corn, while USDA uses September-August.
Despite a largely unrealized export potential, we do not rule out further downward revisions to the export forecast. Much will depend on the security of shipping in the Black Sea.
Subscribe to our newsletter to receive Black Sea analytics delivered directly to your inbox!
