Andrey Sizov
26.02.2026
In February, SovEcon lowered its 2025/26 wheat export forecast by 0.3 mln t to 45.4 mln t. The export estimate for the following season was raised by 2.1 mln t to 41.7 mln t. The downgrade for the current season reflects weaker competitiveness of Russian wheat, while the higher outlook for next season is supported by favorable crop prospects.
The 2025/26 wheat export forecast was reduced amid declining competitiveness of Russian wheat compared with EU offers. Last week, prices for Russian 12.5% protein wheat hovered at $232–236/mt FOB, close to offers from Bulgaria and Romania (CVB) at about $236/mt FOB. A month earlier, CVB prices were $3–5/mt above Russian levels. Some importers are switching to CVB due to freight advantages.
A key factor behind elevated Russian wheat prices is the strong ruble. In late February, USDRUB was around 76, compared with 80 at the end of December. The ruble has strengthened amid tight monetary policy by the Russian central bank.
Despite these headwinds, shipments from Russia remain relatively strong. Russian wheat exports in February are estimated at 3.3 mln t, compared with 1.9 mln t a year earlier and a five-year average of 3.0 mln t.
In February, USDA left its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast unchanged at 44.0 mln t.
The 2026/27 wheat export forecast was raised following an upward revision to the new crop estimate. SovEcon increased its 2026 wheat production forecast by 2.1 mln t to 85.9 mln t, citing relatively favorable weather conditions and good winter crop conditions.
Russian wheat has largely lost its traditional price advantage over EU origins, and that is limiting export momentum. Without serious weather disruptions or new geopolitical shocks, we see little scope for a sustained price rally before the season ends.
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