Andrey Sizov
09.09.2026
The absence of competitive Black Sea wheat is starting to disrupt international tenders, according to the latest SovEcon report.
Saudi Arabia cancelled a tender to buy 535K mt of hard milling wheat for November–December delivery after the General Food Security Authority said the submitted offers were unsuitable. Traders attributed the decision to high prices amid sharply reduced Black Sea availability.
The move is highly unusual. Saudi Arabia has not cancelled a wheat tender in recent years, including during the 2022 grain price rally. In July, GFSA bought 661K mt of wheat at an average price of around $269.4/mt C&F.
Potentially S.A. can afford. USDA estimates its beginning wheat stocks at 3.95 mmt in 2026/27, up from 3.50 mmt a year earlier and almost double the 2.00 mmt held at the start of 2022/23.
Saudi Arabia has consistently ranked among the largest buyers of Russian wheat, importing around 1.8 mmt in 2025/26 and 1.5 mmt a year earlier. According to USDA, its total wheat imports reached about 4.65 mmt last season.
The problem is that Black Sea wheat, normally one of the key sources of competitive supply, remains severely constrained. Buyers in many cases are switching to Australian and Argentine wheat as Russian and Ukrainian shipments have been delayed or disrupted, paying substantially higher prices for replacement cargoes.
We remain skeptical that the negotiation process will quickly change the situation in the Black Sea. Contacts continue, but there has been no breakthrough so far, while strikes on port infrastructure and shipping persist. Following his meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Vladimir Putin criticized the previous Black Sea grain deal and stressed the importance of grain exports for Ukraine, offering little reason to expect a rapid revival of a similar agreement.
The Saudi cancellation is bearish in the short term. A major importer is refusing to validate current wheat prices and has enough stocks to wait. But Saudi Arabia and other large buyers cannot postpone purchases indefinitely.
If Black Sea supply remains constrained, the next Saudi tender could matter more than this cancellation by showing the price at which a major buyer is finally prepared to return to the market.
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