Andrey Sizov
14.01.2026
SovEcon estimates Russia will ship 3.0–3.4 million metric tons (mmt) of wheat in January, compared with 2.3 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 3.1 mmt. Russian wheat exports are expected to be above average due to strong competitiveness and revived demand from major importers.
The high competitiveness of Russian wheat is keeping export flows at relatively elevated levels for this part of the season. Last week, Russian wheat was offered at $225–227/mt (FOB), while EU wheat, including CVB (Bulgaria and Romania), was quoted at about $232/mt.
Demand from major importers for Russian wheat has picked up. In late December, Egypt’s Mostakbal Misr purchased 0.7 mmt of wheat, with a significant share of the volume likely to be supplied by Russia.
Russian export pace has accelerated in recent months, supported by a good crop and improving export margins. A record 5.1 mmt of wheat was exported in November, followed by 4.2 mmt in December, the highest December volume in the past eight years.
Mixed signals are coming from the Southern Hemisphere. In recent months, prices were pressured by a record-high crop in Argentina and a bumper crop in Australia. However, harvests in both countries are largely complete, and these estimates are already largely reflected in prices. Argentine wheat FOB rose to $210 per metric ton by mid-January from $206 a month earlier.
In December, SovEcon pegged Russian wheat exports in 2025/26 at 44.6 mmt. In January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated Russian wheat exports at 44.0 mmt.
Strong exports and a relatively large wheat crop in Russia could lead to upward revisions to export estimates this season. At the same time, an export quota of 20 mmt of grains, due to take effect in mid-February and remain in place through the end of the season, will act as a limiting factor.
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