Andrey Sizov
19.08.2026
Russian wheat exports are set to fall sharply in August as disruptions at key Black Sea ports continue to restrict shipments, according to a new SovEcon report.
We have cut our August wheat export estimate by 1.0 mmt to 2.2 mmt, from 4.5 mmt a year ago and a five-year average of 5.0 mmt.
The last time Russia exported less wheat in August was in 2010, when shipments totaled just 1.6 mmt. That year, the government imposed a grain export ban from Aug. 15 after a severe drought.
Our current estimate assumes that at least some Black Sea terminals resume operations before the end of August. If the disruptions persist, exports could fall below 2.2 mmt, potentially prompting further downgrades.
All grain terminals in Novorossiysk remain closed for vessel loading, while Taman also remains shut. Several more bulk carriers have been hit by drones in recent days, and freight availability remains severely constrained.
The export bottleneck is also putting growing pressure on Russia’s domestic market. Since June, food wheat prices have fallen by around 2,500 rub/mt to 11,025 rub/mt, a decline of about 18%. The harvest is bringing large volumes of new-crop wheat to market while export demand remains severely constrained. Domestic buyers are delaying purchases in anticipation of further price declines. We do not expect any effective measures that would materially support domestic demand.
Meanwhile, sharply reduced Russian availability is becoming increasingly supportive for international wheat prices.
We believe continued Black Sea disruptions are likely to support global wheat prices while putting further pressure on Russian domestic prices. The current export pace also points to further cuts to Russia’s 2026/27 wheat export forecast.
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