Andrey Sizov
27.05.2026
Port bids fell as the ruble strengthened, however negative margins should support Russian and Black Sea wheat export prices, according to SovEcon’s latest report.
Bids in Russian deep-sea ports fell to their lowest level since early February last week, 12.5% wheat quotes in deep-sea ports fell to 15,600 rub/mt in the week to May 20, down 500 rub/mt w/w. Year on year, prices are lower by 1,300 rub/mt, or 8%.
The key pressure factor is the sustained strengthening of the ruble. The ruble has strengthened by almost 10% since the start of the year: the USD/RUB rate fell from 78.2 on January 9 to 70.8 on May 22. Over the past week alone, the ruble strengthened by 3.2%, reaching its strongest level since January 2023. A stronger ruble reduces exporters’ ruble-denominated revenue and forces them to revise bids lower.
Export prices for Russian wheat have risen moderately, adding around $14/mt, or 6%, since the start of the year. In the week to May 20, they stood at $243/mt, up only $2/mt than a week earlier. This is not enough to offset the stronger ruble, so export margins remain deeply negative. The wheat export tax remains zero.
Farmers are holding back sales, expecting the market to recover; some market participants are considering carrying stocks into the new season. This limits supply, but the stronger ruble and negative exporter margins continue to pressure port bids.
Russian and Black Sea wheat FOB prices are likely to remain supported by limited farmer selling and negative export margins, while the strong ruble continues to weigh on port bids.
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