Andrey Sizov
24.11.2025
Russian farmers are selling grain and oilseeds at a record pace, likely reflecting a difficult financial situation, SovEcon said in a report.
Grain sales totaled 11.0 million metric tons (mmt) in September, according to Rosstat — the highest monthly figure on record. Oilseed sales reached 1.7 mmt, also a record for September and matching the all-time high set in 2020, before sunflower seed export taxes were introduced.
In October, grain sales totaled 9.3 mmt, the highest for the month since 2022, when 9.9 mmt were sold following a record harvest. Oilseed sales reached 3.0 mmt — the second-highest monthly total on record, just below the 3.1 mmt recorded in December 2023.
We think the surge in sales reflects mounting financial pressure on farmers, many of whom are being forced to sell crops to repay loans and fund the winter planting campaign. Pre-tax income of grain and oilseed producers reached 67 billion rubles (USDRUB = 78.6) in January–August 2025, down 25% from a year earlier, SovEcon calculation shows.
Amid rising sales, grain prices have come under pressure. The average price for 12.5% protein wheat in European Russia fell to 13,600 rubles per ton by mid-November, down 7% from early August. Sunflower prices dropped to 35,675 rub/mt down by 2% from an early season peak reached in September.
We believe farmers will be forced to continue selling stocks at a relatively fast pace, adding further pressure to both domestic and global prices. Overall, we expect the financial situation in the agricultural sector to deteriorate further in the coming years if export restrictions introduced in recent years remain in place.
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