Andrey Sizov
06.08.2026
Russian wheat exports totaled an estimated 1.6 mmt in July, the lowest for the month since 2017/18, according to a recent SovEcon report.
Shipments were down from 2.1 mmt a year earlier and were roughly half the five-year average of 3.1 mmt.
The weak start to the season reflects navigation restrictions in the Sea of Azov, attacks on export infrastructure, and subdued demand from major buyers, including Egypt and Turkey. Turkey is expected to harvest a significantly larger crop this season. Egypt imported large volumes of wheat in the first half of the year and is also completing its domestic harvest.
In July, SovEcon cut its 2026/27 Russian wheat export forecast to 44.6 mmt from 46.5 mmt, as navigation in the Sea of Azov remained closed.
Ukraine’s July wheat exports also slowed. Exports totaled 1.1 mmt, but the pace weakened in the second half of the month. Shipments reached 0.7 mmt during July 1–17 and 0.4 mmt during July 18–31, with the average daily pace falling by around 30%.
Attacks in the Black Sea continue.
In our view, the market continues to underestimate risks to Black Sea grain exports. Simultaneous pressure on Russian and Ukrainian shipments, combined with the vulnerability of alternative routes, should support global grain prices. At the same time, additional supply retained inside Russia will keep ruble-denominated prices under pressure.
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