Andrey Sizov
22.07.2026
SovEcon has cut its 2026 Russian wheat crop forecast to 88.3 mmt from 88.9 mmt, according to the company’s latest report. The revision reflects weaker-than-expected yields in Krasnodar region and a smaller spring wheat area.
The wheat crop forecast for the Southern and North Caucasus federal districts was lowered to 37.1 mmt from 37.4 mmt.
Following favorable weather during most of the growing season, early yields remain strong in nearly all key southern regions, including Rostov, Volgograd and Stavropol. Krasnodar is the main exception, with yields сoming in below average.
As of July 17, Russian farmers had harvested 17.1 mmt of wheat from 4.1 mln ha, compared with 21.2 mmt from 6.1 mln ha a year earlier.
Spring wheat area is now estimated at 9.8 mln ha, down from 9.9 mln ha previously. Total wheat area was reduced to 25.7 mln ha from 25.8 mln ha. The decline in spring wheat area partly reflects the impact of several years of wheat export duties, which have reduced margins and made alternative crops more attractive.
At the same time, SovEcon raised its barley crop forecast to 19.5 mmt from 18.8 mmt after increasing the estimated area to 7.0 mln ha from 6.7 mln ha.
The corn crop forecast was raised to 15.1 mmt from 14.6 mmt, while the area estimate was increased to 2.7 mln ha from 2.6 mln ha.
The total grain and pulse crop is now estimated at 135.3 mmt, little changed from 135.2 mmt previously.
The lower wheat crop forecast, combined with potential export challenges, could provide support to global prices.
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