Russia May Suspend Wheat Export Duty

Andrey Sizov 26.08.2026

Russia is likely to suspend its floating grain export duties through the end of 2026. The Agriculture Ministry is preparing a proposal for a moratorium on export duties for wheat, barley and corn, according to Vedomosti. Our sources confirmed the report.

More broadly, the government has been stepping up support for the grain sector. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the authorities were taking measures to ensure that grain intended for export is shipped on time and in full.

The government has already subsidized rail grain shipments and is considering an additional 10 bln rubles, or about $120 mln, for alternative export routes. Other measures under discussion include grain interventions of around 1–3 mmt, extended subsidized loans and direct payments to producers.

Meanwhile, the domestic grain market is under mounting pressure. Since June, fourth-grade wheat prices have fallen by around 4,900 rub/mt, or 36%, to 8,575 rub/mt, or about $103/mt. This is the lowest level for this time of year in at least five years. In dollar terms, the current price is around 20% below the previous five-year low, set in 2023. Exporter demand remains largely absent, while new-crop supply continues to enter the market.

At the same time, we have cut our August wheat export estimate again, by 0.3 mmt to 1.9 mmt, compared with 4.5 mmt a year ago and a 5.0 mmt average.

More than 95% of Russia’s combined Black Sea and Azov grain export capacity is currently shut down. Russia’s Black Sea ports alone normally have estimated grain export capacity of around 3.3 mmt per month.

Harvest pressure is adding to the weakness. By Aug. 21, Russia had already harvested 93.9 mmt of grains, including 73.9 mmt of wheat.

In our view, the proposed measures are unlikely to provide meaningful support either to Russian grain exports or to domestic prices. Unless Black Sea and Azov logistics improve, grain will continue to accumulate inside Russia, keeping domestic prices under pressure while reduced Russian availability supports global wheat prices.

We will discuss the outlook for Black Sea exports, Russian and Ukrainian grain supplies and the implications for global wheat prices at our live webinar on September 1.