Andrey Sizov
29.07.2026
SovEcon has cut its forecast for Russia’s 2026/27 wheat exports to 44.6 mmt from 46.5 mmt as navigation in the Sea of Azov remains closed, according to the company’s latest report.
The barley export forecast was lowered to 3.2 mmt from 3.4 mmt, while the corn estimate was raised to 3.6 mmt from 3.4 mmt.
Total grain and pulse exports are now forecast at 53.8 mmt, down from 56.1 mmt previously.
The new season follows strong exports in 2025/26. Wheat shipments rose to 46.0 mmt from 40.8 mmt a year earlier, while barley exports increased to 5.0 mmt from 3.6 mmt. Corn exports rose to 4.6 mmt from 2.9 mmt.
Exports have slowed sharply at the start of the new season. Preliminary data suggest that wheat shipments in July will total around 1.5 mmt, roughly half the average of 3.1 mmt.
Navigation in the Sea of Azov is not expected to normalize in the coming weeks, although some recovery later in the season remains possible. The restrictions represent primarily a logistics shock rather than a supply problem.
If navigation remains restricted, more grain will stay inside Russia, adding pressure to domestic prices while supporting the global market.
Weak demand from major buyers, including Egypt and Turkey, is also expected to constrain exports early in the season. Both countries are completing relatively large domestic harvests.
The higher corn export forecast reflects a larger crop and expectations of continued strong demand from Iran through the Caspian route.
Lower Russian exports should provide support to global grain prices, while additional supply retained inside the country will keep ruble-denominated prices under pressure.
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