Andrey Sizov
08.07.2026
Russia’s 2026/27 wheat export forecast was raised by 0.2 mmt to 46.5 mmt, as larger carry-in stocks are expected to partly offset a smaller crop, according to SovEcon’s latest report.
The 2025/26 wheat export forecast was lowered by 0.6 mmt to 46.2 mmt.
Near-term exports are expected to remain subdued as importer demand stays muted during harvests in key buying countries. Turkey and Morocco are expected to harvest much larger crops this season. Egypt bought heavily in March-April and is also completing its domestic harvest.
Importers appear to be in wait-and-see mode amid broadly favorable Black Sea crop prospects, including in southern Russia, Romania and Ukraine. Ample Ukrainian stocks are another bearish factor.
Larger carry-in stocks should support Russian wheat exports in 2026/27 despite a smaller crop. However, the season may get off to a relatively slow start. Key importers have little urgency to buy, while high Ukrainian stocks add to overall Black Sea supply.
Total Russian grain exports are forecast at 56.1 mmt in 2026/27, up from 55.7 mmt previously. Exports in 2025/26 are estimated at 57.9 mmt, down 0.1 mmt from the May forecast.
Barley exports are forecast at 3.4 mmt in 2026/27 and 4.9 mmt in 2025/26. Corn exports are seen at 3.4 mmt and 4.5 mmt, respectively.
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