Andrey Sizov
12.08.2026
Russian wheat exports in August could fall to their lowest level for the month in almost a decade, according to a new SovEcon report.
Our first estimate puts August wheat exports at 3.0–3.4 mmt, down from 4.5 mmt a year earlier and well below the five-year average of 5.0 mmt. This could be the lowest August volume since 2016/17, when Russia exported 3.1 mmt.
The weak start to the season reflects continued problems with Black Sea exports and subdued demand from major buyers. Security risks remain elevated. Lack of navigation in the Sea of Azov continues to affect shipments.
On Aug. 12, an overnight attack on Novorossiysk damaged two major grain terminals: Novorossiysk Grain Terminal and NKHP. The scale of the damage is unknown.
If operations resume within days, the impact on exports will likely be limited. If they do not, we could revise our August wheat export estimate down by 0.5-0.7 mmt.
At the same time, demand from key importers, including Egypt and Turkey, remains limited for now.
July exports were also unusually low at 1.6 mmt, compared with 2.1 mmt a year earlier and a five-year average of 3.1 mmt.
Domestic prices are falling. Fourth-grade wheat dropped another 450 rub/mt this week to 11,375 rub/mt, although the decline slowed from the previous week.
Meanwhile, Algeria’s latest tender suggests buyers are becoming more willing to accept higher import prices. OAIC reportedly purchased 540–720 tmt of milling wheat at around $289–290/mt C&F, roughly $25/mt above its June 17 tender.
The higher C&F price is an important signal for the Black Sea market. While export flows remain constrained, buyers appear increasingly willing to accept the new price environment.
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